Rupee sinks to record closing low

Why in the news ?
  • The rupee slumped to its lowest ­ever close as it weakened further against the dollar to end at 68.95.
More on news
  • The Indian rupee’s previous closing low was the 68.83 a dollar level it fell to on August 28, 2013, when the currency was in free fall as foreign investors pulled out from emerging markets in what came to be known as the ‘taper tantrum’. 
  • Rising crude prices are a drag on the Indian economy and fuel inflation concerns, as it is a major driver of our current account deficit as India imports around 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements.
  • Global crude oil prices are surging from the last few sessions after the US asked its allies to end all imports of Iranian oil by a November deadline and said it didn’t want to offer any extensions.
  • The rupee was also under pressure due to drop in Asian currencies, with Chinese Yuan sliding for the 10th straight day, its longest losing streak since March 2014 after ongoing trade war between world’s two biggest economies.
  • Trader fears that US-China trade war may evolve into a currency war.
  • Rupee’s depreciation is in line with other emerging market currencies as the dollar index has strengthened in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

 

Impact
  • India’s current account deficit (CAD) surged over three times to $ 48.7 billion, or 1.9 per cent of the country’s GDP, in fiscal 2017-18.
  • The rupee, which is now one of the worst performing currencies, has lost close to eight per cent this year.
  • Foreign investors have started pulling out funds from India, adding to the rupee’s bearishness, along with the spike in crude oil prices coupled with the strengthening of the dollar across the globe.
  • Capital outflows of around Rs 60,000 crore — Rs 19,500 crore from the equity market and over Rs 40,000 crore from the debt market — since April this year have put severe pressure on the rupee.
  • As India normally finances the current account deficit with portfolio investments and foreign direct investment, capital outflows will put pressure on the external account.
  • India imports around 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements and higher crude oil prices risks widening India’s current account deficit, adding inflation risks.
  • The sectors that are looking good due to the fall in the rupee are, of course, the export-oriented ones including IT and pharma.

 

U.S Federal
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance is also prompting foreign investors to pull out from emerging markets. 
  • The market was awaiting the minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting -due to be released -for clues on its future rate action.
RBI steps in
  • The rupee’s slide past the 69 mark is likely to have prompted state-run banks to sell dollars on behalf of the central bank, dealers said. 
  • The RBI has been intervening in the foreign exchange market to curb volatility.
  • Recently RBI is estimated to have sold dollars about $700­-800 million through state-owned banks. 

 

Source

The Hindu, Indian Express.


Posted by Jawwad Kazi on 6th Jul 2018