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Economic growth at 8-8.5% in ’22-23
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India’s GDP is expected to grow by 9.2% this year and 8% to 8.5% in 2022-23, though hardening inflation and energy prices along with tightening of global liquidity pose a challenge, according to the Economic Survey for 2021-22 tabled by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament
Newly appointed Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran termed the 8%-8.5% GDP growth estimate for the coming year a conservative projection.
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According to Economic survey 2021-22 the growth range hinges on assumptions that there will be no further debilitating pandemic related economic disruption, monsoon will be normal, withdrawal of global liquidity by major central banks will be broadly orderly, oil prices will be in the range of $70-$75/barrel, and global supply chain disruptions will steadily ease over the course of the year.
Last year’s Economic Survey talked of a V-shaped recovery for India’s COVID-hit economy, there is no mention of that aspect or the shape of the recovery in this year’s document.
While the 9.2% growth estimate for 2021-22 suggests a recovery above the pre-pandemic level of 2019-20 by 1.3%, private consumption and segments such as travel, trade and hotels are yet to fully recover, as per the Survey.
The stop-start nature of repeated pandemic waves makes it especially difficult for these sub-sectors to gather momentum.
The year ahead is also well poised for a pick-up in private sector investment with the financial system in a good position to provide support to the revival of the economy.
India’s macro-economic stability indicators on the external front, fiscal front as well as financial sector health and inflation, are well-placed to take on the challenges of 2022-23.
India has thus recorded a modest current account deficit of 0.2% in the first half, but robust capital flows in the form of continued inflow of foreign investment were sufficient to finance it, the Survey pointed out.
Economic Survey
The Economic Survey is an annual economic report card that is released a day before the budget and assesses the performance of each sector before making recommendations for future actions.
It is prepared by the Economics Division of the Finance Ministry's Department of Economic Affairs, under the supervision of the Chief Economic Adviser (CEA).
In the absence of the CEA, the survey is being prepared by the Principal Economic Advisor and other officials.
The government has named economist V Anantha Nageswaran as the next CEA just days before the release of the Economic Survey.
In 1964, the Economic Survey was decoupled from the Budget and released ahead of time to set the tone for the latter.
The Economic Survey was de-linked from the Budget in 1964 and unveiled in advance in order to provide a context of the latter.
There is a common thread running through all of the surveys. The topic for last year was saving lives and livelihoods. The Economic Survey was pink in 2017-18 since the topic was women's empowerment.
It is divided into two sections: the first discusses the country's economic issues, and the second examines the previous year.
It is divided into two sections: the first discusses the country's economic issues, and the second examines the previous year.
It examines India's economic development over the previous fiscal year by analysing and presenting thorough statistical data from various sectors, including industrial, agricultural, and industrial production, employment, prices, and exports.
The Survey also aids in a better understanding of the Union Budget by determining the country's priorities for the coming fiscal year and which sectors will require additional attention.