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Method to simulate, predict solar activity
Why is it in news?
- A team of researchers from IISER Kolkata has developed a way of predicting the intensity of activity in the next solar cycle (approximately from 2020 to 2031) using data spread over the last 100 years.
More in news
- Astronomers have observed sunspots on the surface of the sun for nearly 400 years.
- It is known that sunspots follow a cyclic pattern of growing in number and disappearing in approximately 11 years, known as the sunspot cycle or the sun’s activity cycle.
- We are currently in the 24th sunspot cycle since the observation began in 1755.
- Contrary to other calculations, they find that the sun’s activity would not dip during the next cycle, but it would be similar to the current cycle, perhaps even stronger.
- They expect the cycle to peak around 2024.
- The researchers simulated the behavior of the sun using magnetic field evolution models and observational data.
- They simulate solar activity and using inputs from observed data from one cycle, predict the behavior of the sun over the next cycle, about ten years in advance.
- What is the need for understanding sunspots?
- An important reason to understand sunspots is that they affect space weather.
- This refers to the effect of radiation, particle flux and magnetic flux in the region around the sun.
- During extreme events, space weather can affect electronics-driven satellite controls, communications systems, air traffic over polar routes and even power grids.
- The other reason sunspots are interesting is the belief that they are correlated with climate on earth.
- A lot of the research in this area focuses on predicting the way the next sunspot cycle will shape up – whether the sun will be extremely active and produce many sunspots or not.
Source
The Hindu